In 2017, China embarked on an ambitious project to construct Xiongan New Area, a sprawling megacity intended to alleviate the overcrowding of Beijing and serve as a model of urban innovation. Spanning 772 square miles, making it three times the size of New York City, Xiongan was envisioned as a testament to China’s rapid development capabilities.
However, despite the investment of $93 billion and the transformation of farmlands into a modern metropolis, the city remains largely uninhabited. This article delves into the factors contributing to Xiongan’s current state, exploring the challenges of top-down urban planning, economic implications, and the human cost of such grandiose projects.
The Vision Behind Xiongan
Xiongan New Area was conceived as a solution to Beijing’s overpopulation and congestion. With the capital housing over 20 million residents, the Chinese government sought to redistribute some of its non-essential functions to a new city. President Xi Jinping personally championed Xiongan, aiming to create a “model city in the history of human development” that would showcase China’s urban planning prowess. The city was designed to feature state-of-the-art infrastructure, including one of China’s largest train stations capable of handling 100,000 passengers daily, modern office buildings, and luxury hotels.
Rapid Development and Infrastructure
In just seven years, Xiongan transformed from a landscape of cornfields and swamps into a metropolis boasting impressive infrastructure. The train station alone spans an area equivalent to 88 football fields, symbolizing the scale of the project’s ambition. Modern office complexes and luxury accommodations were erected, reflecting the government’s commitment to creating a world-class urban environment. However, the rapid pace of construction did not correlate with population influx, leading to vast, empty spaces within the city.
Displacement and Human Cost
The development of Xiongan necessitated the displacement of thousands of residents. Entire villages were demolished, and inhabitants were relocated to newly constructed apartment complexes. While these new accommodations were modern, the forced relocation disrupted established communities and livelihoods.
The government’s decision to prioritize Xiongan during the 2023 floods further exacerbated public discontent. To protect the nascent city, officials diverted floodwaters to neighboring towns, resulting in significant damage to areas where people actually lived. This move underscored the government’s unwavering commitment to Xiongan, often at the expense of existing communities.
Economic and Policy Challenges
To prevent real estate speculation, the government implemented strict controls in Xiongan:
- Limited Business Operations: Only specific types of businesses were permitted to operate, restricting economic diversity.
- Ban on Real Estate Trading: All housing units are state-owned, eliminating private property transactions.
- Price Controls: Strict regulations on pricing deterred potential investors and entrepreneurs.
These measures, while intended to maintain affordability and order, inadvertently stifled economic growth. Without a vibrant business environment, job opportunities remained scarce, deterring potential residents. The lack of employment prospects created a vicious cycle: businesses hesitated to relocate due to the absence of a consumer base, and people avoided moving to a city with limited job offerings.
Comparisons to Other Urban Projects
Historically, China has undertaken large-scale urban projects with varying degrees of success. Shenzhen, for instance, evolved from a fishing village into a bustling metropolis, driven by market-oriented reforms and strategic location advantages. In contrast, Xiongan’s development has been predominantly state-driven, with stringent regulations that hinder organic growth. The current economic climate, marked by declining population growth, decoupling from Western economies, and a general slowdown, further complicates Xiongan’s prospects.
The Political Imperative
Xiongan is more than just an urban development project; it is a cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s legacy. The political capital invested in the city’s success means that admitting failure is not an option. Consequently, resources continue to flow into Xiongan, regardless of its current viability. This unwavering commitment raises concerns about the efficient allocation of resources and the potential for continued economic and social costs.
Lessons Learned
Xiongan’s challenges highlight the limitations of centralized, top-down urban planning. While infrastructure can be constructed rapidly, fostering a vibrant, self-sustaining community requires more than just buildings and roads. Economic incentives, cultural attractions, and organic social interactions are crucial components of a thriving city. The human element—individuals’ desires, needs, and aspirations—cannot be engineered through policy mandates alone.
The Future of Xiongan: A Turnaround or a Monument to Failure?
As China faces economic headwinds, the fate of Xiongan remains uncertain. Some experts believe that, over time, the city may attract more residents as businesses gradually adapt to its framework. However, others argue that Xiongan’s strict regulations make it difficult for economic dynamism to take root. Without significant policy changes, Xiongan risks becoming an expensive experiment that never fulfills its intended purpose.
Unintended Consequences of a Centralized Model
Xiongan’s challenges reflect broader issues within China’s economic planning model. The centralized approach, while effective in mobilizing resources quickly, often leads to inefficiencies when market forces are ignored. The rigid controls imposed on Xiongan have discouraged investment and innovation, creating an artificial city that lacks the organic growth necessary for long-term success.
Global Lessons from Xiongan’s Struggles
Xiongan serves as a cautionary tale for nations considering large-scale urban development projects. Sustainable urbanization requires a balance between government intervention and market-driven growth. Policies must encourage economic activity while ensuring livability for residents. The failure to attract people to Xiongan underscores the importance of allowing cities to develop naturally rather than forcing growth through mandates.
Could Xiongan Still Succeed?
Despite its current struggles, Xiongan still has potential if major policy reforms are enacted. Allowing private property ownership, easing business restrictions, and fostering a more flexible regulatory environment could help attract investment and residents. However, such changes would require a shift in the government’s approach, which remains uncertain given the political stakes involved.
The Role of Foreign Investment in Xiongan’s Future
If China is willing to ease restrictions and allow foreign businesses to invest in Xiongan, the city may see a turnaround. Global corporations could bring expertise, capital, and jobs, which in turn would attract residents. However, China’s current geopolitical stance and strict regulations make it unlikely that foreign investors will rush to Xiongan unless major economic reforms are introduced.
Potential Impact on Future Urban Planning
The lessons learned from Xiongan may shape how China and other nations approach urban development in the future. Planners must recognize that building infrastructure alone is not enough—there must be economic and social incentives that encourage organic growth. Without these elements, large-scale projects risk becoming expensive, underutilized failures.
Conclusion
Xiongan New Area stands as a testament to China’s capacity for rapid development and ambitious planning. However, its current state as a sparsely populated metropolis underscores the complexities of urbanization and the pitfalls of over-centralization. Balancing visionary projects with practical, human-centered planning is essential to ensure that such megacities do not become monuments to ambition but rather thriving centers of life and activity.
